June Market Commentary

A view of the markets in June 2026. Commentary provided by Upper Park, a Thornbridge Appointed Representative.

Global macro markets started to settle down in June as hostilities in Iran receded. The oil price fell substantially, reducing inflation expectations in bond markets, although US bond yields in particular remained elevated, as the optimism around AI growth in the US grew.

The ECB hiked rates by 25bp as previously expected, and gave no forward guidance, whereas the BOJ suggested they remain on a path of gradual tightening after also raising their rate. The BOE and the Fed both left rates unchanged, content so far that their starting positions pre-war were slightly restrictive.

Kevin Warsh chaired his first meeting, and stamped his authority by reaffirming a commitment to bringing inflation down to target, and reducing forward guidance. The rest of the committee shifted their expectations for rates in a hawkish direction, which had the effect of raising market expectations of eventual hikes.

Given the Chairman’s stated intention to influence the market pricing less, and instead be informed by free market price changes, it seems this evolution will be bumpy. “We will meet in 6 weeks’ time and debate in the spirit of a family fight will be healthy,” was Warsh’s observation.

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